Fifa International · resolved market
Will Benin vs. Senegal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2129ab138ccadd68b8d632d5c2342d10513b98a035daec5b4cd0e911a88095a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 15c | 5,000$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 16c | 1,948$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.3 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…22a3backed Yes | 28c | 1,757$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,349$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 16c | 1,245$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 15c | 1,049$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 320 | 31.6%101 W · 219 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423c…25d5backed Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…e793backed Yes | 12c | 833.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 798.58$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 17c | 699.52$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.15 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 17c | 669.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 19c | 531.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 16c | 468.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 11c | 459.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 10c | 407.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 17c | 323.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed Yes | 16c | 216.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…997cbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 17c | 154.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 162 | 25.3%41 W · 121 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 147.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c5…0d72backed Yes | 16c | 143.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…bbf3backed Yes | 16c | 123.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed No | 79c | 119.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9dbabacked Yes | 28c | 103.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc4…63f6backed Yes | 15c | 100.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…4cb8backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…b10abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…6866backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4697…0a10backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 16c | 72.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 27.2%55 W · 147 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4c82backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.40per pick | 50cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benin vs. Senegal end in a draw?this page
- Will Benin win on 2025-12-30?No won
- Will Senegal win on 2025-12-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.