Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c69d8719298be24a56cc0bee8c3c7ec8d43af9f2e16296035affdd959a3a13f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2529…548abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 1,373$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.13 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 1,342$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.33 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 26c | 1,141$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.82 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 806.85$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.34 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked L1ga Team | 50c | 750$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked L1ga Team | 61c | 737.86$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.69 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked L1ga Team | 62c | 716.7$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.35 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 650.8$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.81 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed L1ga Team | 61c | 487.9$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.01 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed L1ga Team | 59c | 423$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.43 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 29c | 375.74$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.34 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 327.91$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 62c | 323.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.34 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed L1ga Team | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 289.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked L1ga Team | 63c | 240.63$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 65c | 225.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2c…9642backed Pipsqueak+4 | 8c | 224$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed L1ga Team | 63c | 195.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed L1ga Team | 61c | 195.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Pipsqueak+4 | 30c | 190.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 187.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 38c | 139.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 118.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 117.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed L1ga Team | 62c | 77.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Pipsqueak+4 | 26c | 72.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908b…247cbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 71.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 39c | 70.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked L1ga Team | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 57.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 25c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 48.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…813bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 47.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 32.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 32.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa18f…c57abacked L1ga Team | 61c | 25.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd49…515dbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…8444backed L1ga Team | 61c | 20.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0148…b61cbacked L1ga Team | 61c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked L1ga Team | 66c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Group BL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.