Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7174c1dc014048baf15d7eb3a39d1afd857986eacc06d80ee19a43d6ba46fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 10c | 1,750$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,699$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 4c | 898.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 4c | 682.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 5c | 659.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 640.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 620.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 600$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1daf…9667backed Yes | 7c | 581.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 3c | 559.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 510.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 5c | 500.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 3c | 463.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 428.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 4c | 399.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 394.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes | 7c | 380.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 4c | 365.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 6c | 365.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 5c | 293.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…8bc2backed Yes | 8c | 260.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 209.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…00e3backed Yes | 10c | 200.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…03ffbacked Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…c3abbacked Yes | 10c | 100.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 14c | 72.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…6c26backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.