TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$70,991
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,015

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,991 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes49c3,680$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.8648331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes41c1,410$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$835.0126339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes31c1,307$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.8631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed Yes22c1,232$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.3413250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No19c1,076$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9759742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes79c1,068$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.684850%24 W · 24 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bb9…1f8fbacked Yes27c1,061$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes42c1,053$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.7695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No61c848.59$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.3117243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ddf…af5fbacked No63c801.24$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.57650%3 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-32.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes34c737.78$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.0831341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes19c599.66$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.1224010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No75c533.36$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.6330664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes54c520.15$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.271,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes26c500.09$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.6313533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes53c455.63$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.3533139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bb9…9dbabacked No5c446.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.424219%8 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-48.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c440.24$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No3c390.38$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0533620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No54c387.36$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.397,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes29c366.97$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.291,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes46c353.99$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8316036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes38c341.4$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.151553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes29c340.25$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.019429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc97…da82backed Yes59c339.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.511646.6%54 W · 62 L-0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No73c324.04$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.722050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec15…3942backed Yes45c285.62$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.284032.5%13 W · 27 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3984…20e8backed Yes28c275.03$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.91258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+69%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb10f…ae45backed No78c274.7$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked Yes47c268.94$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.6811359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No58c234.2$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.823,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes41c222.4$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes26c216.05$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6824442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes33c205.59$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5154037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes30c201.87$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.3118727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No55c201.24$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.721,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes11c200$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17814637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968b…e4c5backed No44c195.66$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.097334.2%25 W · 48 L-10.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d8e…3d55backed Yes44c186.95$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.951080%8 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+55.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No72c174.51$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.045451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes27c160.88$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.557552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes39c154.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.64037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes38c152.74$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2661659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x988a…9e6fbacked Yes29c152.28$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.431241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefd0…7e95backed No58c150.69$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.43751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes67c150.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0143021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c64…844fbacked Yes28c149.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbecb…d052backed No75c145.35$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd442…f946backed Yes37c136.82$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed1…e361backed Yes31c135.98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+219.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes25c130.62$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7234219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c128.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.992,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ce3…ef1abacked Yes27c123.36$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.47366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+70.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b4…04f0backed Yes28c121.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.423100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+104.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No55c118.68$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9920146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb261…a612backed Yes70c103.91$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3610542.9%45 W · 60 L-9.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No10c102$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x8110…68dcbacked Yes37c101.19$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.88850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5626236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8010531.4%33 W · 72 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.28438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6428737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5510650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.516432.9%54 W · 110 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c99.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.093,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes50c90.59$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5911436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes26c90.33$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6660851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5e7…bda3backed No57c88.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe85f…6dc7backed Yes23c87.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+335.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd47f…b9a3backed Yes46c85.09$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.641838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55a1…799ebacked Yes29c83.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+43.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4d…bacebacked Yes44c82.76$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.47560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No17c81.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes25c81.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0929642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes29c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8822236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed8e…07f8backed No60c79.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes25c79.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0433058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c78.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed No18c78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.316753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes39c77.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7314338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe693…e18dbacked No51c72.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373036.7%11 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes44c68.96$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4238840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes49c65$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3865934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes26c65$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.16729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c64.88$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.131,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed Yes49c64.84$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3712152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ed9…c127backed Yes35c64.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.115056%28 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x326a…2ebfbacked Yes48c63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.062339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3636…1a57backed Yes40c63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.88551.8%44 W · 41 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b82…c4e7backed No75c60.45$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…a41bbacked Yes31c58.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+140.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52c…282fbacked Yes34c58.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.041844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe63c…8872backed No60c55.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.931868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfff3…983fbacked Yes37c54.05$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.051850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda89…8a6cbacked Yes32c53.63$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.661637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes38c52.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.634833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No53c51.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.59643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…635dbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.