TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,553

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c74…ee19backed Yes0c32,271$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.641338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bac…8769backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes71c836.15$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.7595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes49c800.66$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.3926339.9%105 W · 158 L+17.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c738.56$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.191,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x357d…0897backed Yes66c734.7$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.754037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x584e…090fbacked Yes76c722.96$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.5147834.3%164 W · 314 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1816…06e9backed Yes73c615.24$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.59728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1667…8b83backed Yes75c584$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.453246.9%15 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd802…d766backed No39c525.01$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.3530664.1%196 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No34c486.05$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.159742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x309d…4287backed Yes79c436.37$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed No17c400.24$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.5724010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No66c385.04$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.063,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked No57c374.66$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.627079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xe170…3c0bbacked No50c358.14$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.247950.6%40 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c356.2$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.992,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes40c353.61$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8116036.3%58 W · 102 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No59c327.96$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes67c297.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No32c269.96$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0260121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No42c242.08$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.2317243.6%75 W · 97 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes71c232.44$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.0357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked Yes63c223.62$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.832050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes69c217.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.111,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4986…aacbbacked Yes19c209.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.244833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c208.5$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c205.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.94,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c200$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb10f…ae45backed Yes79c193.41$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.52560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes55c182.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.941553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes56c164.27$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.632548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b4…a53bbacked Yes63c159.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick74cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3bd…458dbacked Yes25c158.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No24c158.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8934219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes43c152.74$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0461659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4d…c47dbacked Yes45c149.56$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed No46c148.91$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6429642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x18b0…6d29backed Yes43c135.15$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes29c134.1$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8638840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x534d…047abacked Yes48c130.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes72c124.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1131649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfff3…983fbacked No38c122.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.391850%9 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes33c120.68$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.849429.8%28 W · 66 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+0.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes67c119.39$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8033139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c24…b10ebacked No27c113.12$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.122010%2 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No26c112.77$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3354037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes56c107.32$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.111,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No24c104.7$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8232830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5728737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9469…6d18backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7095942.4%407 W · 552 L+84.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+27.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes79c100$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6405…7d19backed No31c99.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.798438.1%32 W · 52 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes22c99.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes74c95.83$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.341,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed Yes47c95.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.677552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes27c88.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c09…fa55backed No72c81.24$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.992744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-27.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes41c80$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.85848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2742…1f7abacked No26c79.17$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4711359.3%67 W · 46 L+17.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+69.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0259…33c9backed Yes51c78.79$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401450%7 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…635dbacked Yes32c74.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes55c74.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.831729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes33c71.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.691,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x354f…f46ebacked Yes38c68.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eca…1e1abacked Yes30c67.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes61c67.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6931341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes76c62.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5416651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfda…daefbacked Yes77c60.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c60.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.258,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc552…c3abbacked Yes24c54.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.142227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes44c53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.422347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a34…905fbacked Yes78c51.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.491,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c64…844fbacked No22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+69%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes39c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.52060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes37c49.85$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes60c49.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Yes55c48.54$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.491,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x517b…50b7backed Yes73c48.09$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31838.9%7 W · 11 L-4.8wins-0.27per pick65cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c46.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.983,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69d2…2f75backed Yes30c46.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.993243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…dcebbacked Yes60c46.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.932133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes65c46.21$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No55c45.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6425341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No61c45.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.589643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes23c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3520025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3617…98b4backed Yes77c44.15$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes46c43.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-65.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x288c…3318backed Yes23c43.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes49c42$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5825536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefd0…7e95backed Yes51c41.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.233751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9e6…0f82backed No52c41.31$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.015619.6%11 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.