Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe66cecfcfeb9c6b0c941e53baeb1c6fdeeb81c34091d3c06b48b5ce80e129b4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 150 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c74…ee19backed Yes | 0c | 32,271$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 71c | 836.15$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.75 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 49c | 800.66$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.39 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 738.56$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…0897backed Yes | 66c | 734.7$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.75 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 76c | 722.96$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.51 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…06e9backed Yes | 73c | 615.24$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1667…8b83backed Yes | 75c | 584$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.45 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 39c | 525.01$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.35 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 34c | 486.05$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.1 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Yes | 79c | 436.37$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 17c | 400.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.57 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 385.04$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 57c | 374.66$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.6 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked No | 50c | 358.14$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.24 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 356.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 40c | 353.61$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.81 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 327.96$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 67c | 297.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 32c | 269.96$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.02 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 42c | 242.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.23 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 71c | 232.44$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked Yes | 63c | 223.62$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 69c | 217.88$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Yes | 19c | 209.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 208.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 205.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10f…ae45backed Yes | 79c | 193.41$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…8a4ebacked Yes | 55c | 182.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 56c | 164.27$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b4…a53bbacked Yes | 63c | 159.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…458dbacked Yes | 25c | 158.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 24c | 158.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.89 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 43c | 152.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4d…c47dbacked Yes | 45c | 149.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 46c | 148.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b0…6d29backed Yes | 43c | 135.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 29c | 134.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…047abacked Yes | 48c | 130.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 72c | 124.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff3…983fbacked No | 38c | 122.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 33c | 120.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 94 | 29.8%28 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 67c | 119.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c24…b10ebacked No | 27c | 113.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 26c | 112.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 107.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.11 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 24c | 104.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.82 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 74c | 95.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 47c | 95.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.67 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 27c | 88.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…fa55backed No | 72c | 81.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 26c | 79.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.47 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed Yes | 51c | 78.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…635dbacked Yes | 32c | 74.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e3…4a3bbacked Yes | 55c | 74.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 33c | 71.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354f…f46ebacked Yes | 38c | 68.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…1e1abacked Yes | 30c | 67.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 61c | 67.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 76c | 62.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…daefbacked Yes | 77c | 60.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 60.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc552…c3abbacked Yes | 24c | 54.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…905fbacked Yes | 78c | 51.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…844fbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +69%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 37c | 49.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 60c | 49.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 55c | 48.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…50b7backed Yes | 73c | 48.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.8wins | -0.27per pick | 65cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 46.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…2f75backed Yes | 30c | 46.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 60c | 46.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Yes | 65c | 46.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 55c | 45.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 61c | 45.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3617…98b4backed Yes | 77c | 44.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…3318backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefd0…7e95backed Yes | 51c | 41.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed No | 52c | 41.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.