MLB · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c7e3fbd0dc89c6bf035640fb55965d708cb645a97537cd3251a5a7edbb7cbdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Minnesota Twins, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 38c | 1,003$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Minnesota Twins | 38c | 483.87$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.87 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7693…470fbacked Colorado Rockies | 62c | 483.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.87 | 213 | 54.5%116 W · 97 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 365$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 316.6$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 170.32$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 148.5$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 21c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 76.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 73.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 68.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Minnesota Twins | 35c | 60.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Minnesota Twins | 39c | 58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 51.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 40.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 39.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 39.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 718 | 50.1%360 W · 358 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…ffb9backed Minnesota Twins | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Colorado Rockies | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Colorado Rockies | 60c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Colorado Rockies | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Colorado Rockies | 70c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-6.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.