UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c950fbdca6798d069fafb5b8738e80bf49fb1eaf2328e5817b4de45f07fa20e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Under | 61c | 9,767$5,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,969.51 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 39c | 9,526$3,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,824.63 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Over | 38c | 1,909$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.72 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Under | 63c | 1,805$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.3 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…d581backed Over | 42c | 986.39$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…e864backed Under | 58c | 524.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Over | 42c | 457.77$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.5 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Under | 59c | 430$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.7 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…14ebbacked Under | 61c | 401.48$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…bae9backed Under | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Over | 42c | 216.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.51 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 44c | 193.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 59c | 188.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | +13.7wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 58c | 179.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.39 | 107 | 54.2%58 W · 49 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 41c | 160$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.4 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9836…23cbbacked Over | 42c | 148.48$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…dedebacked Over | 42c | 144.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…86b1backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Over | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…0b70backed Under | 58c | 97.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…caa8backed Under | 63c | 76.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 181 | 60.8%110 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Over | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…13edbacked Under | 61c | 49.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1e…ca41backed Under | 61c | 48.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Under | 62c | 43.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Over | 35c | 39.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…6b43backed Under | 60c | 35.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Dominick Reyes won
- Will Dominick Reyes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.