UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2e6da8879e8dc076288abae00ec5626f9a58e1e6a348676a6b7b5713cc5800f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked Yes | 14c | 11,381$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,787.49 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 19c | 3,012$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.25 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,281$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,895.11 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…5256backed Yes | 14c | 548.72$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 14cpaid | +578.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 14c | 506.26$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.38 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…544bbacked Yes | 42c | 463.39$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.39 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 16c | 301.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 50c | 225.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce8…a893backed Yes | 44c | 217.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6099…1914backed No | 45c | 216.12$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 14c | 209.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.79 | 181 | 41.4%75 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 23c | 180.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…0f22backed Yes | 16c | 131.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.39 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Yes | 20c | 74.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 49 | 81.6%40 W · 9 L | +10.4wins | +0.21per pick | 60cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…2071backed Yes | 42c | 68.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f3…d5e9backed No | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 64cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 43c | 61.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 74c | 59.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 21c | 52.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 47.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…07c8backed No | 66c | 38.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…11acbacked No | 71c | 23.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Dominick Reyes won
- Will Dominick Reyes win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.