MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb741f357e0e6dd11aa30e83bfa5da51c6b0db7141214e62952634bd7b973d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 3,296$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 2,180$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 1,489$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.45 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 1,175$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 810$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 520.91$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 332.95$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 245.8$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…e1d4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 209.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 22c | 208.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 197.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed St. Louis Cardinals | 25c | 146.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 23c | 120.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 98.05$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 18c | 87.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 66.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 80c | 65.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…eeb6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed St. Louis Cardinals | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 35.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.