MLB · resolved market

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5a4804894d3863a73cad49cc13fb01df17250979fade743d64edd8686e6c910

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jun 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $84,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $84,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,571 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Under	55c	29,356$16,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16,145.68	239	48.5%116 W · 123 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Over	45c	27,778$12,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15,277.9	116	56.9%66 W · 50 L	+8.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	45c	15,975$7,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,713.12	11,519	52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L	+213.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under	56c	11,247$6,298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,297.97	1,414	49.5%700 W · 714 L	-4.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Under	55c	10,829$5,956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,955.96	883	49.3%435 W · 448 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	44c	8,747$3,849 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,898.16	10,979	51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L	+139.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Under	56c	6,000$3,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,360	217	48.4%105 W · 112 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Over	45c	5,413$2,445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,967.21	4,515	48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L	-46.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x459e…7dd1backed Under	51c	5,158$2,656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,656.4	70	47.1%33 W · 37 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	43c	4,179$1,799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,379.39	8,192	46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L	+38.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under	60c	3,107$1,870 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,870.19	4,368	47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L	-79.9wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over	47c	2,778$1,298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,480.09	3,509	51%1,789 W · 1,720 L	+53.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	54c	2,331$1,263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,262.82	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under	52c	2,209$1,145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,144.61	874	53%463 W · 411 L	+16.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Under	51c	1,100$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.97	227	53.3%121 W · 106 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Over	45c	1,093$492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$601.17	324	51.9%168 W · 156 L	+7.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Under	54c	1,026$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.78	172	48.8%84 W · 88 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Under	52c	961.69$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	-4.4wins	-0.15per pick	51cpaid	-27%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over	45c	806.84$366 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.78	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over	48c	698.53$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$363.24	657	49.2%323 W · 334 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	48c	630.12$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.66	1,586	48.5%770 W · 816 L	-2.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked Under	33c	598.99$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.34	912	52.4%478 W · 434 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	62c	543.56$335 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.1	12,328	46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L	-66.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	59c	518.29$305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.71	9,819	46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Under	54c	428.98$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.65	370	52.2%193 W · 177 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under	56c	299.32$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.62	134	41%55 W · 79 L	-12.2wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under	21c	231.94$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.62	2,172	39.9%866 W · 1,306 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over	44c	227$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.12	1,141	46.3%528 W · 613 L	+36.3wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Over	49c	204.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.08	162	51.9%84 W · 78 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	45c	203.2$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.13	8,403	47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L	+76.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed Over	43c	201$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.57	290	43.1%125 W · 165 L	-12.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over	46c	200$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108	999	47.5%475 W · 524 L	-3.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over	48c	199.99$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.99	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Over	45c	199.98$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.15	890	53.1%473 W · 417 L	+5.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6b…accbbacked Under	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	46.6%34 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa99f…164bbacked Under	56c	178.57$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	107	44.9%48 W · 59 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over	45c	167$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.85	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2bf…04d7backed Over	49c	135.79$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.25	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed Over	47c	120$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.6	416	37.5%156 W · 260 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over	45c	119.99$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.4	1,062	49.2%523 W · 539 L	-11.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Over	48c	119.99$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.39	1,753	50.8%890 W · 863 L	+29.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	47c	119.91$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.03	2,995	47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L	+12.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under	20c	103.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.75	8,594	52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L	+508.9wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Over	44c	102.96$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.66	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52f9…3691backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.04	49	44.9%22 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.52	802	55%441 W · 361 L	+24.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6553…aa3cbacked Over	49c	91.84$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.84	149	46.3%69 W · 80 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over	48c	91.68$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.67	3,841	42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under	55c	91.26$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.19	1,240	58.1%721 W · 519 L	+23.6wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6123…8b33backed Over	45c	77.78$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.78	268	53.7%144 W · 124 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf35backed Under	56c	77.14$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Over	47c	66.73$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.34	597	49.9%298 W · 299 L	+19.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Under	52c	63.46$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	859	49.1%422 W · 437 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Over	63c	60$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.2	303	40.6%123 W · 180 L	-16.4wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Over	46c	59.99$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.16	1,172	49.1%575 W · 597 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c6…eeb6backed Under	30c	55.37$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	159	42.8%68 W · 91 L	-6.6wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa95a…6b78backed Over	47c	55$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.15	65	52.3%34 W · 31 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Over	62c	54.75$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.7	5,812	43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L	-188.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Under	55c	54.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1,197	53.9%645 W · 552 L	+42.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ea9…5b98backed Under	56c	53.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	133	53.4%71 W · 62 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	46c	50.28$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.15	1,301	50.2%653 W · 648 L	+19.0wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.17	572	44.6%255 W · 317 L	-35.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Over	46c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over	44c	45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.2	1,445	50.3%727 W · 718 L	-27.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb208…e0b2backed Over	49c	44.12$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.5	84	57.1%48 W · 36 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb21…3138backed Under	55c	44$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	69	47.8%33 W · 36 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	47c	43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.75	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Under	39c	39.32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	1,042	49.4%515 W · 527 L	+13.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a0…5911backed Under	56c	35.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	146	45.9%67 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56d…4928backed Over	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	38	39.5%15 W · 23 L	-4.3wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3679…b5a8backed Under	55c	26.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7885…1173backed Over	42c	25.51$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.86	133	57.9%77 W · 56 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Over	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	778	36%280 W · 498 L	-17.2wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ce…af35backed Over	46c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.45	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-5.3wins	-0.35per pick	49cpaid	-73.8%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Under	50c	24.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	328	50%164 W · 164 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Over	46c	24$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	539	50.6%273 W · 266 L	+16.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05a…4635backed Over	74c	20.54$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.34	830	53%440 W · 390 L	+12.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6594…6593backed Under	55c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-6.6wins	-0.47per pick	54cpaid	-87.2%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x6946…13dabacked Under	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	55c	18.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	6,999	50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5Under won
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event