MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x385a5d28fbee7d21aebd9392a5d1a347952ed36799b4a18a80b16cfa2e384ca0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 43c | 2,700$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 57c | 2,700$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,161 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1f…9136backed Under | 40c | 2,276$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.32 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 1,659$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 56c | 663.53$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.22 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 566.44$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.67 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 510.58$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 490.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…2751backed Over | 33c | 337.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 33c | 333.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.17 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 74c | 232.88$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 231.97$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 44c | 139.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed Under | 60c | 138.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 119.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 54c | 115.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 36c | 114$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 53c | 76.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d76…90a0backed Over | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 31c | 56.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.53 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 31c | 54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 37c | 52.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…9945backed Over | 25c | 41.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 26c | 40.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 36c | 39.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Under | 60c | 35.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 26.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 57c | 23.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Under | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 12.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 13.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.