TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will the United States win the 2024 Women's Chess Olympiad?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,792

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes2c2,788$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.652321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c1,683$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.12100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes2c1,520$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-88.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,280$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3511011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes3c842$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes2c815$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes3c615.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-43.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe29…63e5backed Yes2c615.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes2c573.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.261225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes2c508.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.184122%9 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf54e…fdc0backed Yes4c425.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfaf7…712cbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No70c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes30c52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.