Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cd9029b5c3054bca63741c32264a5c79c5e89ccdc397fa26af9600d9a52e1c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 23c | 420.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.35 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under | 21c | 329.21$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 14c | 308.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 77c | 278.18$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Over | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 22c | 132.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Over | 77c | 126.8$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 9c | 122.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 78c | 97.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 25c | 95.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Over | 79c | 87.49$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Under | 22c | 64.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 79c | 62.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 77c | 32.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 78c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 79c | 19.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Over | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f3…f727backed Over | 78c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.