Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc90f102565a133ff3d034400e72c0b3645529812c386841933b9f5ea65916a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 1,096$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.68 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 802.57$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.03 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 796.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.89 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 16c | 718.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.38 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +1,078.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +817.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Over | 55c | 278.97$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 52c | 268.76$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.01 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 211$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 11c | 161.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 80c | 150.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.14 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 44c | 136.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Over | 29c | 132.06$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Under | 76c | 129.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 55c | 118.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 60c | 116.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…dd8fbacked Under | 72c | 114.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 54c | 101.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 69.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 73c | 57.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…ffbebacked Over | 37c | 54.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 52.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 79c | 50.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Under | 72c | 40.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 79c | 39.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over | 47c | 39.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 57c | 22.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.