Ligue 1 · resolved market
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc0355f13c54f7e304c4e46070ccfc44a440905ca44568edaa7a25e344af09e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ddd…bea6backed Under | 62c | 3,153$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 2,696$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.21 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 2,677$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.69 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 54c | 1,862$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.01 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 52c | 559.41$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.89 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 60c | 396.91$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…df82backed Under | 77c | 385.67$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 35c | 272.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -10.4wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 251.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 36c | 218.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa203…11bcbacked Under | 40c | 192.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…958dbacked Under | 72c | 163.87$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 59c | 152.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.47 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 47c | 136.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Over | 48c | 121.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf870…415dbacked Under | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…0031backed Under | 53c | 97.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb09a…7fc7backed Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 64c | 76.83$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 33c | 74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 67c | 72.92$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca6…08ffbacked Over | 30c | 67.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…269dbacked Under | 66c | 65.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 62c | 49.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +10.6wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Over | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 64c | 37.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 68c | 29.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed Under | 70c | 29.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 65c | 28.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Over | 49c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 70c | 26.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Under | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 3.5this page
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 1.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5Over won
- Olympique Lyonnais vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: AJ Auxerre (-2.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)AJ Auxerre won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)AJ Auxerre won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.