World Politics · resolved market
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cdbe8c61ad37616aa158b364deaccf7246872a035cf07e14133f77f5ba0db58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,285
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,285 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed No | 4c | 1,347$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…4551backed No | 4c | 785.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…83bcbacked No | 43c | 726.35$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.45 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 28c | 482.17$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da8…0cc3backed Yes | 74c | 202.86$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…8219backed No | 26c | 202.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ac…d7b4backed No | 5c | 200.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 5c | 196.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 30c | 166.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x003c…f3cabacked No | 26c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?this page
- Will Citizens’ Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?Yes won
- Will Denmark Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark?Yes won
- Will Inuit Ataqatigiit be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Liberal Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark?Yes won
- Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.