World Politics · resolved market
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27d165270bb58e95511ce45edbe17120368c536c29a17b380da8e67d6e17e725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc2e…2358backed Yes | 29c | 3,330$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…f17cbacked No | 65c | 1,612$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed Yes | 60c | 1,503$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.27 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c89…6d01backed No | 72c | 1,176$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 18c | 770.16$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.24 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e7…4cdebacked No | 60c | 765.96$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.03 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a2…9981backed No | 68c | 742.07$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.07 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…8b01backed Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 24c | 664.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.67 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked No | 60c | 601.9$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.21 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 20c | 518.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 63c | 502.6$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929e…291abacked No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 65c | 406.2$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.46 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…41b4backed Yes | 19c | 351.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf14b…7661backed Yes | 16c | 310.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 21c | 260$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 246.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedf…8617backed Yes | 53c | 242.93$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 224.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 184.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…f2ecbacked Yes | 28c | 178.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf903…e028backed No | 50c | 158.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 60c | 156$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…021dbacked Yes | 64c | 155.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae5…6079backed Yes | 21c | 152.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed No | 52c | 139.15$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…f1f7backed Yes | 23c | 129.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…8ddabacked No | 22c | 120$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 105.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…b390backed Yes | 26c | 94.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de6…9933backed Yes | 16c | 92.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372e…ee1ebacked Yes | 34c | 89.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 86.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…b49ebacked Yes | 75c | 78.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 15c | 73.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…e6e8backed Yes | 58c | 69.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 35c | 64.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 28c | 63.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…83bcbacked Yes | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked No | 65c | 52.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 51.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf6…8ee0backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4564…1c05backed No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…a294backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 56cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4769…a673backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 46.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…8c11backed No | 60c | 41.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…dc2dbacked Yes | 29c | 39.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 42c | 27.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…22eabacked No | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…2b82backed Yes | 53c | 20.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 52c | 20.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…1614backed Yes | 74c | 16.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark?this page
- Will Citizens’ Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?Yes won
- Will Denmark Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark?Yes won
- Will Inuit Ataqatigiit be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Liberal Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Moderates be part of the next Government of Denmark?Yes won
- Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?No won
- Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.