MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d2b3f4f737c81b047068a9a7be5331c8f221e2cbece316d8ae3b4edb04bb69a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 8,528$3,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,411.2 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 7,868$4,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,147.2 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 6,014$2,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,046.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 5,078$2,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,121.72 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 48c | 3,151$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 1,762$1,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 1,145$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 671$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.2 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf874…def4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 540.85$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.85 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 495.51$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 388.53$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 302.44$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 298.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.59 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 32c | 225.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.16 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 221.49$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.38 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed St. Louis Cardinals | 8c | 210.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 172.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 115.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 102.45$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 98.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 88.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…95c3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 87.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 87.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…44fdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 86.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 75.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 62.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 54.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 47.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 41.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 40.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 39.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 25.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…e892backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 22.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 18.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis CardinalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.