Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d56188f9a81d6cf71f6623331c62144eddf3060d86280e5c6f00811f5f77c04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe24c…5e36backed Up | 10c | 10,249$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…1992backed Down | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e71…be4cbacked Down | 47c | 572.54$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c94…5b86backed Up | 16c | 466.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.58 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 46c | 400$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…5437backed Down | 80c | 367.04$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Up | 10c | 330$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Up | 53c | 192.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…0325backed Up | 14c | 165$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked Up | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Down | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…651ebacked Up | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 39c | 92.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…1eccbacked Up | 14c | 75.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Down | 24c | 61.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Up | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Down | 62c | 29.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.