Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d9e2a2fcb42ea28a8e62a858682d795a8641a793f90dd6ef0e76700a655497b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 3,201$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.05 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…b6c6backed Yes | 19c | 2,494$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 74c | 2,477$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.53 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 1,447$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.81 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 80c | 1,108$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.09 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 27c | 892.17$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.89 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked No | 77c | 443.08$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 44c | 441.97$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.27 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 27c | 389.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Yes | 23c | 285.08$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 15c | 272.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 74c | 262.7$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 218.1$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 23c | 208.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Yes | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed No | 80c | 137.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 21c | 119.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 80c | 109.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bc…4e1cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed No | 70c | 97.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 70c | 97.24$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 23c | 77.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Yes | 21c | 59.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 80c | 57.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 22c | 56.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 69c | 36.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…0be0backed Yes | 60c | 19.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.