Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd4f7a3139af3034df90b3080de6208cf4868e88a16ffbd9ab3fe8c05726fdf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 17c | 1,408$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.05 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 1,065$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.59 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30da…a11dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,053$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 5c | 518.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.89 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 20c | 405$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.9 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.14 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 46c | 325.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 75c | 313.58$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 45c | 303.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.06 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +109.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 56c | 296.68$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.77 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…f0b2backed Yes | 11c | 242.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.32 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 18c | 240.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.84 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…5c5fbacked No | 38c | 169.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 17c | 147.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 60c | 142.1$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.58 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 20c | 121.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 114$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 19c | 105.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2709…9e3bbacked Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21dd…0b83backed Yes | 17c | 73.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Yes | 18c | 64.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 76c | 63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 24c | 51.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 70c | 29.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcebe…0720backed No | 43c | 24.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 71c | 22.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1e…f51cbacked No | 49c | 20.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-05-16?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?No won
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.