CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6de85a3fd2fb6965c11cc77675e4db786d33442c65a408e51708053315758293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Allianceof B8, Alliance
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked B8 | 44c | 2,855$1,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.9 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Alliance | 54c | 2,568$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.34 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Alliance | 56c | 2,321$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.36 | 473 | 47.1%223 W · 250 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked B8 | 46c | 1,833$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.18 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…7a85backed B8 | 44c | 1,350$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed B8 | 43c | 611.01$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.74 | 220 | 45.5%100 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Alliance | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 949 | 45.8%435 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2a…4fd0backed B8 | 42c | 550$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed B8 | 44c | 520$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 616 | 38.1%235 W · 381 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…d35dbacked B8 | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd5…28f2backed B8 | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed B8 | 45c | 486.5$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.92 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked B8 | 44c | 478.03$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.33 | 343 | 40.8%140 W · 203 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Alliance | 55c | 429.36$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.21 | 2,030 | 53.7%1,091 W · 939 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f11…5d87backed B8 | 42c | 368.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.76 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed B8 | 45c | 320.93$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2a…30edbacked Alliance | 58c | 261.98$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…0335backed Alliance | 59c | 168.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.94 | 365 | 54.8%200 W · 165 L | +23.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed B8 | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 174 | 51.7%90 W · 84 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb969…1d37backed B8 | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…7db2backed B8 | 44c | 106.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed B8 | 45c | 93.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 446 | 43.5%194 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed B8 | 44c | 68.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed B8 | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1,041 | 39.9%415 W · 626 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…fd15backed Alliance | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Alliance | 56c | 51.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 610 | 55.9%341 W · 269 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…8475backed B8 | 44c | 51.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked B8 | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed B8 | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 560 | 49.8%279 W · 281 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Alliance | 58c | 44.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 240 | 54.6%131 W · 109 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Alliance | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 265 | 44.2%117 W · 148 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked B8 | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +12.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed B8 | 46c | 27.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1,895 | 47.8%906 W · 989 L | -50.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed B8 | 38c | 26.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 374 | 53.2%199 W · 175 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked B8 | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 681 | 47%320 W · 361 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked B8 | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 486 | 52.3%254 W · 232 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3d…6aa1backed Alliance | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 79 | 70.9%56 W · 23 L | +11.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: B8 (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: B8 vs Alliance (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group StageAlliance won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.