MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6def9d84d3ddbfc330cd58e29f8883852ea3e657c5bbdb1d4910ce9a88ce6b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Yankeesof New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0273…1867backed New York Yankees | 44c | 1,608$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.39 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 56c | 1,301$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 1,039$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.4 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Giants | 56c | 746.55$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.14 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed New York Yankees | 40c | 742.49$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.5 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 400$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 320.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 311.47$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 305.06$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed San Francisco Giants | 27c | 246.77$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 198.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed New York Yankees | 43c | 162.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 152.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed San Francisco Giants | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc186…ad81backed New York Yankees | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed New York Yankees | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed New York Yankees | 42c | 107.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.14 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed New York Yankees | 73c | 94$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked San Francisco Giants | 30c | 81.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed San Francisco Giants | 26c | 60.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed New York Yankees | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba86…6831backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 36.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…183ebacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco GiantsNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.