MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaece42db6c68368fd32c06bb1e34caaccce8b9ef1503af7ba1b37920f4042cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Under | 50c | 767.34$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.67 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…5a3fbacked Over | 49c | 670.26$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.43 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 611.12$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Under | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 42c | 350$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 309.76$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb03c…b352backed Over | 51c | 293.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 230.4$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.89 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 50c | 209.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 49c | 202.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8924…3b00backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 165$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 50c | 112.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 49c | 111.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 50c | 107$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 37c | 101.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 89.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 49c | 85.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 50c | 50.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 52c | 49.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Under | 51c | 43.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 71c | 43.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 41c | 40.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 23.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 21.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…455dbacked Under | 76c | 19.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dab…dc59backed Under | 76c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Under | 66c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- NRFI: New York Yankees vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
- New York Yankees vs. San Francisco GiantsNew York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)New York Yankees won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.