CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e025355a2c1e9a995dc27af54757a74a6cbc5b9abbea2ebcc1a3102caafcb29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- los kogutosof ARCRED, los kogutos
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,012
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked ARCRED | 56c | 1,721$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.25 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed ARCRED | 54c | 1,487$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.46 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked los kogutos | 32c | 1,416$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.84 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked los kogutos | 32c | 1,264$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.42 | 526 | 36.5%192 W · 334 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked ARCRED | 58c | 1,120$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.15 | 2,326 | 55.7%1,296 W · 1,030 L | +44.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…3dc9backed ARCRED | 69c | 891.44$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.5 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked los kogutos | 33c | 805.61$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.83 | 157 | 32.5%51 W · 106 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed los kogutos | 30c | 750.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.47 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed ARCRED | 67c | 685.46$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.92 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8389…db1bbacked los kogutos | 44c | 575.75$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.24 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED | 49c | 542.63$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.38 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed ARCRED | 70c | 485.96$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…8d42backed ARCRED | 16c | 473.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 529 | 47.1%249 W · 280 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed los kogutos | 30c | 431.79$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.25 | 849 | 58.3%495 W · 354 L | +60.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed los kogutos | 31c | 320$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda32…04a1backed ARCRED | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 314 | 44.9%141 W · 173 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9684…16ecbacked ARCRED | 61c | 295.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed los kogutos | 37c | 287.93$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.99 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed ARCRED | 70c | 277.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.78 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…a5c9backed los kogutos | 29c | 274.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.24 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bff…267ebacked los kogutos | 70c | 260$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed los kogutos | 51c | 256.97$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 240 | 38.3%92 W · 148 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked los kogutos | 31c | 232.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed ARCRED | 71c | 205.63$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 178 | 47.2%84 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072b…3431backed ARCRED | 76c | 198.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked ARCRED | 68c | 187.93$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.35 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked ARCRED | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…3293backed ARCRED | 68c | 166.18$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked los kogutos | 31c | 156$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.64 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52b…3837backed ARCRED | 69c | 140.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76bb…4548backed ARCRED | 72c | 139.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 225 | 55.6%125 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…2430backed los kogutos | 21c | 133.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.22 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed ARCRED | 70c | 130$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed los kogutos | 30c | 128.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.82 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ARCRED | 70c | 123.19$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed los kogutos | 43c | 116.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 184 | 54.3%100 W · 84 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d4…f46cbacked los kogutos | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked los kogutos | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7646…b2a1backed los kogutos | 49c | 97.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…b95dbacked los kogutos | 31c | 95.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…203fbacked ARCRED | 27c | 92.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed los kogutos | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed ARCRED | 69c | 85.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked los kogutos | 49c | 71.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed los kogutos | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…89d9backed ARCRED | 72c | 66.79$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked ARCRED | 43c | 63.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 335 | 39.4%132 W · 203 L | -19.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…eae3backed los kogutos | 30c | 51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked ARCRED | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed ARCRED | 23c | 48.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed ARCRED | 65c | 46.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked los kogutos | 49c | 42.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 459 | 56.9%261 W · 198 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked los kogutos | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 719 | 51%367 W · 352 L | +28.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed ARCRED | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc8…a5fbbacked ARCRED | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…9e52backed los kogutos | 54c | 21.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | -9.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b79…89e5backed los kogutos | 49c | 21.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed los kogutos | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 246 | 41.9%103 W · 143 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc03d…07e1backed ARCRED | 68c | 18.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs los kogutos - Map 1 Winnerlos kogutos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.