NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e05eb6d4aeb0c8da668dd006acec6774ea2cccf96dfc149408a843ffdda59b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…5500backed Under | 47c | 14,900$7,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,897 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…4422backed Over | 53c | 13,400$7,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,102 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4740…030bbacked Under | 47c | 9,300$4,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,929 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a8…c0eebacked Over | 53c | 6,400$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 6,385$3,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,323.02 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 50c | 5,816$2,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.59 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 63c | 4,462$2,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.54 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…b8a4backed Over | 53c | 4,400$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,332 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 32c | 2,986$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.38 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 48c | 1,369$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.13 | 237 | 51.5%122 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Over | 50c | 663.22$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.24 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…7d8dbacked Over | 74c | 500$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…d410backed Over | 52c | 461.54$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 50c | 415.38$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.69 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 24c | 401$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.55 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Under | 50c | 298.67$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Over | 52c | 292.31$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 268 | 48.5%130 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 48c | 249.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.98 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Over | 50c | 238.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.49 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 49c | 237$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 223.53$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 209.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.19 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 196.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 50c | 174.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.51 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 164.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 164.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 157.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 23c | 121.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…530fbacked Under | 49c | 118.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe209…f67dbacked Over | 75c | 105.33$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 309 | 51.1%158 W · 151 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 63c | 95.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 52c | 76.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Over | 50c | 72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 50c | 54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 52c | 49.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…1f62backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 50.4%126 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 35c | 36.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 49c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 48c | 31.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 39c | 31.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7590…d6e0backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 25.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Blues vs. LightningLightning won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Lightning won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.