NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9085f3f1afb6bc419e9419453dd8f05d1f146984b17fa8776d9223b638b92256
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1ff…e56abacked Lightning | 49c | 107,513$52,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,831.4 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Blues | 49c | 97,030$47,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,710.32 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Blues | 51c | 9,000$4,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,590 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa25…05e8backed Blues | 55c | 8,900$4,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,935.55 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Lightning | 46c | 5,855$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,161.7 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Blues | 3c | 4,015$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…0dadbacked Lightning | 50c | 3,777$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.6 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blues | 50c | 3,717$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.3 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 48c | 2,430$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.96 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Blues | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Blues | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 41c | 1,370$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.49 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Blues | 51c | 1,309$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.59 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Blues | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.3wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Blues | 52c | 588.73$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.18 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Blues | 53c | 581.99$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.46 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Blues | 52c | 577.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.56 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Lightning | 47c | 568.92$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.53 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 46c | 552.56$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.16 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blues | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Blues | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Lightning | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Blues | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Blues | 53c | 325.53$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.53 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Lightning | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed Lightning | 47c | 216.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Lightning | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Lightning | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Lightning | 46c | 152.87$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.55 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Blues | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Lightning | 48c | 130.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.07 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Lightning | 42c | 127.78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Blues | 51c | 124.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Blues | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Lightning | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 177 | 55.9%99 W · 78 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Lightning | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Lightning | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lightning | 41c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Lightning | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Blues | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Blues | 52c | 54.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Blues | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Blues | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Blues | 52c | 46.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…3157backed Lightning | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Lightning | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…1f62backed Lightning | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 250 | 50.4%126 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8e…cebfbacked Blues | 53c | 39.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Blues | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Blues | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Blues | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Blues | 51c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Blues | 51c | 35.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Lightning | 47c | 26.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Blues | 51c | 22.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e8…0ecabacked Blues | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Blues | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Blues vs. LightningLightning won
- Blues vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.