Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e0ba30ad832acd38db2e07ac9a301e262891c0997e07769760fda6f519bd949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 4c | 2,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 38c | 828.6$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.18 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed Up | 55c | 799.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Up | 55c | 660.68$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.73 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Up | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 56cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 55c | 378.25$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.1 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Up | 57c | 314.52$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.84 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Up | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Up | 58c | 215$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Up | 52c | 179.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Up | 57c | 165.12$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Down | 50c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Up | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…63d3backed Up | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e45…9e45backed Up | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ec…68a8backed Down | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 44c | 59.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…74a0backed Up | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e31…4716backed Up | 53c | 52.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Up | 50c | 52.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed Up | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc6…cba3backed Down | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c3…f673backed Up | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed Up | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 42c | 45.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…38ddbacked Up | 57c | 42.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…2cd4backed Up | 58c | 39.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…fd1dbacked Up | 55c | 35.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…854dbacked Up | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Up | 52c | 30.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…b3a0backed Down | 48c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.