Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e25f12383ebfebf3836debc9061d5aa8993c161ad75da8af880cfbcc5cfa6aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 4,688$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.4 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc283…b876backed Over | 10c | 3,351$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.07 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 72c | 2,237$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.53 | 202 | 62.4%126 W · 76 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 19c | 1,095$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.64 | 469 | 39.4%185 W · 284 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 13c | 637.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 15c | 564.08$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 1,941 | 35.5%690 W · 1,251 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Over | 21c | 462$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 125 | 34.4%43 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 29c | 440.82$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.84 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…6b95backed Over | 31c | 322$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 323 | 56%181 W · 142 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Over | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 257 | 53.3%137 W · 120 L | +23.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 71c | 220$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 21c | 186.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 203 | 30.5%62 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 20c | 179.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 80c | 151$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Over | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 157 | 22.3%35 W · 122 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Under | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 36c | 41.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 197 | 46.2%91 W · 106 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb534…06a6backed Under | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 100 | 68%68 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5this page
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)Saudi Arabia won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Saudi Arabia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.