Fifa International · resolved market
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93398d06e811b2a096e00cc389afd9d4d813917933b70c999ce8a86ee019463c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Saudi Arabiaof Ecuador, Saudi Arabia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbffb…a60ebacked Saudi Arabia | 66c | 3,286$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.99 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -19.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Ecuador | 38c | 1,905$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.38 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Ecuador | 31c | 1,116$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.39 | 2,407 | 37.7%908 W · 1,499 L | -48.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Saudi Arabia | 32c | 717.22$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.08 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Saudi Arabia | 37c | 699.81$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.89 | 444 | 35.4%157 W · 287 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcd…36dfbacked Ecuador | 75c | 600.88$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.58 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Saudi Arabia | 61c | 558.02$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 1,560 | 43.8%684 W · 876 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Ecuador | 70c | 452$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.37 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Ecuador | 48c | 415$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.2 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ecuador | 75c | 329.83$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.28 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…eff9backed Saudi Arabia | 43c | 265.93$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 257 | 53.3%137 W · 120 L | +23.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Ecuador | 38c | 241.97$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 418 | 57.9%242 W · 176 L | +14.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Saudi Arabia | 62c | 222.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Ecuador | 35c | 185.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Ecuador | 37c | 174.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 1,144 | 39.2%448 W · 696 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Saudi Arabia | 71c | 170$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 935 | 42.2%395 W · 540 L | -27.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Saudi Arabia | 58c | 149.48$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Ecuador | 38c | 136.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 355 | 49.9%177 W · 178 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Saudi Arabia | 62c | 119.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 1,873 | 48.4%906 W · 967 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed Ecuador | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 102 | 45.1%46 W · 56 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Ecuador | 39c | 97.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 815 | 54.8%447 W · 368 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Saudi Arabia | 61c | 62.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 379 | 50.1%190 W · 189 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…11b4backed Ecuador | 53c | 57.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 277 | 67.9%188 W · 89 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Ecuador | 36c | 55.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Ecuador | 28c | 54.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 141 | 30.5%43 W · 98 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Ecuador | 33c | 52.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Ecuador | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 111 | 35.1%39 W · 72 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…7f72backed Saudi Arabia | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…b749backed Ecuador | 37c | 39.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Ecuador | 38c | 37.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…c7e6backed Saudi Arabia | 62c | 35.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed Saudi Arabia | 70c | 33.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 199 | 44.7%89 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…7d46backed Saudi Arabia | 61c | 32.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Saudi Arabia | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 370 | 57.3%212 W · 158 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Saudi Arabia | 63c | 28.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Saudi Arabia | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 847 | 51%432 W · 415 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Saudi Arabia | 70c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3267backed Saudi Arabia | 61c | 19.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Saudi Arabia | 63c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)this page
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ecuador vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ecuador (-2.5)Saudi Arabia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.