MLB · resolved market
Twins vs. Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e385b4754d830924c7fc1bddec07100257a855563be952147385f0c9a539e27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Twins, Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c7c…ead5backed Guardians | 45c | 26,200$11,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,410 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…d1febacked Twins | 55c | 25,600$14,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,080 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Twins | 49c | 20,431$10,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,046.96 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians | 51c | 15,691$7,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,706.47 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Guardians | 49c | 7,997$3,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,100.49 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Twins | 54c | 6,285$3,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392.04 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Twins | 54c | 2,181$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.55 | 997 | 50.1%499 W · 498 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…6f55backed Guardians | 50c | 2,020$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.1 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Twins | 49c | 1,690$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.6 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Twins | 51c | 1,467$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.45 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Twins | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Guardians | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Twins | 53c | 827.95$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.81 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Guardians | 51c | 739.2$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.21 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Guardians | 45c | 708.87$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.87 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb3…17cdbacked Twins | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Guardians | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 47c | 559$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.07 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Twins | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Guardians | 47c | 426$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 925 | 50.1%463 W · 462 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Twins | 40c | 320$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Twins | 47c | 292.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Guardians | 48c | 248$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Twins | 52c | 244.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Twins | 53c | 240.11$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Twins | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Twins | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Twins | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Twins | 53c | 126$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Twins | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Guardians | 52c | 86.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b7…6c96backed Twins | 54c | 75.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Guardians | 48c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians | 47c | 51.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,064 | 53.8%1,110 W · 954 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Twins | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Guardians | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f3…9ca0backed Guardians | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Twins | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Guardians | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Twins | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Guardians | 48c | 23.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Twins | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Twins | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.