Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7a43bb12af33591d0a10e91d2bd811b28244d76825ea3159cc2e3eca17bba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd969…0932backed Yes | 26c | 756.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 621.87$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 33c | 491.92$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.37 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 75c | 356$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 246.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 16c | 192.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 37c | 164.81$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…f3e5backed No | 67c | 157.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 27c | 139.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 139.1$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 92.85$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 73c | 82.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 27c | 80.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 74.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 71c | 71.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 14c | 69.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 61.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 46.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 80c | 42.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 33c | 36.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 76c | 35.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 35.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 35.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 25.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 72c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 69c | 19.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.