Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f3630870488d366fc54f1a200a345253e093f988d87d5dde225ef536c095f36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 26c | 577.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 74c | 404.83$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.53 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 12c | 395.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 299.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 62c | 271.54$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 243.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 40c | 196.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 194.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 16c | 159.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 67c | 159.15$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 76c | 156$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.51 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 44c | 125.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 10c | 124.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 14c | 120.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 21c | 114.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 18c | 113.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 62c | 109.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 109$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 12c | 107.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…b8debacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 56c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 103.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 38c | 103.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 52c | 90.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 14c | 86.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 17c | 79.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x335c…733fbacked Yes | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 72.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26a…625cbacked Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 63.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 61.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 70c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…68b3backed Yes | 38c | 52.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…4db9backed Yes | 26c | 51.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +157%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 76c | 47.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 45.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 42c | 42.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 39.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 66c | 38.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 38.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…878abacked Yes | 66c | 31.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 25.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 47c | 22.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 72c | 20.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 20.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…cd28backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa945…8c23backed Yes | 66c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 61c | 19.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…cf4abacked Yes | 80c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…c186backed Yes | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.