Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton beat Manchester United?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8258330ae9b56c240ec907151c6af59729d5131c436b48d65f037a771f2e94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 19c | 1,967$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.78 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,791$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.9 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 19c | 1,617$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.01 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 1,524$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 78c | 1,415$1,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.21 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a12…01cebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 19c | 499.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 20c | 452$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 19c | 444$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…15a2backed Yes | 21c | 367.59$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 19c | 222$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 19c | 136.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 319 | 44.5%142 W · 177 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed No | 80c | 134.93$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed No | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…bc36backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50e…bab3backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22bf…782dbacked No | 80c | 93.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299e…3a55backed Yes | 22c | 76.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 20c | 72.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 208 | 19.2%40 W · 168 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e2…0fa1backed No | 80c | 62.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…f7d3backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…75babacked No | 80c | 61.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e9…6a74backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…d431backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton beat Manchester United?this page
- Will Manchester United beat Southampton?Yes won
- Will Southampton vs. Manchester United end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.