Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32806ac65026c08e950b3841056236667b457bbf5d94d820e72d52aa9276d0bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb2c7…1b5bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,800$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 75c | 1,524$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 68c | 998.67$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.68 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 3c | 498.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.02 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 76c | 184.17$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…f7d3backed Yes | 24c | 132.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 74c | 126.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 74c | 110.97$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 95.1$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United beat Southampton?Yes won
- Will Southampton beat Manchester United?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.