Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e8dc2596a681713dfaedc81a542e598be6a23f7d9f8ff624771a64a49aa7ca7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,153
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 591.85$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 327.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 16c | 283.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 276.96$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.41 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 276.47$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 130.17$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 79c | 116.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 108.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 107.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 92.36$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 91.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 16c | 89.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.47 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcd…6787backed Yes | 15c | 88.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…1d95backed No | 69c | 83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 76.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 30c | 67.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…9888backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 61c | 64.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 34c | 58.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 59c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 31c | 38.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 35.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 78c | 23.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 78c | 22.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 55c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 76c | 22.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 73c | 21.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 17.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 74c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a05…fe04backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 40-41°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 42-43°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.