Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1c593981365db8e03d2b79af1a0126e9aa033ab5a79e31b29d9aa8efcb6457d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 914.72$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 428.25$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 275.46$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.13 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 206.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 28c | 204.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 31c | 189.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.04 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 23c | 154.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.3 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 49c | 118.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 110.31$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 38c | 100.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.41 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 85.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 20c | 82.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 72c | 77.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 44c | 74.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 43c | 68.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 35c | 57.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 39c | 55.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 28c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 28c | 50.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 49.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 69c | 48.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 47.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 43c | 45.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 70c | 42.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 42.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 61c | 42.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 57c | 41.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 40.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 43c | 38.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 29c | 37.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 32c | 34.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 58c | 33.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 48c | 31.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 77c | 31.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…dc17backed Yes | 41c | 31.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 77c | 30.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 34c | 29.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3f…d4bfbacked Yes | 58c | 29.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 69c | 25.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 52c | 25.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 70c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed No | 76c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 51c | 20.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 74c | 17.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 77c | 17.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 44-45°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 56°F or higher on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 40-41°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 42-43°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 46-47°F on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 50-51°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 54-55°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.