Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e9f3a32d438b0bd7100b4406c99d19d07395632fb7a7979c436e3bebcbd6db2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof PARIVISION, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Heroic | 32c | 10,611$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,210.22 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f9…e310backed PARIVISION | 76c | 8,423$6,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,409.14 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed PARIVISION | 33c | 6,072$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Heroic | 35c | 5,662$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,701.92 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…932fbacked PARIVISION | 64c | 2,614$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.02 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 2,067$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.31 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked PARIVISION | 5c | 1,990$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.23 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked PARIVISION | 69c | 1,446$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…d804backed PARIVISION | 9c | 1,435$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.53 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Heroic | 70c | 1,433$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.62 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION | 33c | 1,330$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.91 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…f322backed Heroic | 66c | 1,263$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.42 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic | 32c | 696.97$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.04 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Heroic | 34c | 609.27$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.7 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…d1a6backed PARIVISION | 72c | 573$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.51 | 124 | 59.7%74 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Heroic | 52c | 550$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da2…8c2bbacked PARIVISION | 75c | 501.71$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.28 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION | 76c | 472.22$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.89 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked PARIVISION | 50c | 449.53$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.92 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Heroic | 40c | 354.21$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.33 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked PARIVISION | 66c | 329.81$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Heroic | 32c | 317.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.08 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…46ddbacked PARIVISION | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…3d20backed PARIVISION | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…556cbacked PARIVISION | 32c | 179.68$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed PARIVISION | 42c | 162.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…532bbacked Heroic | 40c | 149.2$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed PARIVISION | 68c | 146.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Heroic | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked PARIVISION | 65c | 139.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.64 | 166 | 65.7%109 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed PARIVISION | 69c | 135.97$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.95 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc76b…5fbabacked PARIVISION | 46c | 128.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heroic | 17c | 116.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked PARIVISION | 45c | 106.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed PARIVISION | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Heroic | 34c | 99.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.79 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Heroic | 33c | 97.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Heroic | 39c | 94.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee06…3054backed PARIVISION | 79c | 86.39$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -5.9wins | -0.42per pick | 71cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Heroic | 79c | 85.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked PARIVISION | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Heroic | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Heroic | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked PARIVISION | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…089bbacked Heroic | 35c | 44.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a33…da7dbacked PARIVISION | 66c | 40.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891c…ef89backed PARIVISION | 79c | 40.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Heroic | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…e530backed Heroic | 74c | 34.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6634…8bf2backed PARIVISION | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a5…6570backed PARIVISION | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…27ffbacked Heroic | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked PARIVISION | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce5…8e89backed PARIVISION | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…881abacked PARIVISION | 67c | 22.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed PARIVISION | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…dde9backed PARIVISION | 79c | 18.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…f3a0backed PARIVISION | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic (BO3)PARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.