WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f1f9e0ccd6ad2fc2565b48f3cdc85e81a84bbb32c4a0fddee2077854a257475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Golden State Valkyriesof Golden State Valkyries, PortlandFire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 60c | 8,000$4,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,182.57 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked PortlandFire | 48c | 3,493$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.73 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed PortlandFire | 67c | 1,473$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.37 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked PortlandFire | 50c | 1,301$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed PortlandFire | 36c | 1,228$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.72 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb693…cfc9backed Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 999$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Golden State Valkyries | 65c | 961.12$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.63 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed PortlandFire | 51c | 610.84$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed PortlandFire | 48c | 608.64$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.15 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked PortlandFire | 35c | 405.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 143 | 46.2%66 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PortlandFire | 44c | 365.69$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.33 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked PortlandFire | 54c | 326.57$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.35 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed PortlandFire | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed PortlandFire | 65c | 270.72$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.45 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed PortlandFire | 44c | 263.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed PortlandFire | 42c | 219.34$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.12 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed PortlandFire | 48c | 214.46$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.94 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…2147backed PortlandFire | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd37…e117backed Golden State Valkyries | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 145.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed PortlandFire | 53c | 137.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed PortlandFire | 47c | 111.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed PortlandFire | 47c | 104.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…bca8backed PortlandFire | 64c | 99.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked PortlandFire | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed PortlandFire | 49c | 77.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53b1…8e43backed PortlandFire | 45c | 65.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 61.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7587…c65abacked PortlandFire | 54c | 58.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Golden State Valkyries | 50c | 50.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked PortlandFire | 49c | 50.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…4db8backed Golden State Valkyries | 47c | 42.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed PortlandFire | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…af22backed Golden State Valkyries | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…153cbacked PortlandFire | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed PortlandFire | 48c | 26.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -11.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed PortlandFire | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Golden State Valkyries | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…b41fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 61c | 21.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5)this page
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 158.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.