WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2584323e63f552b099b27729402bf417d595ccddd95b4a6ebf83b37ad3cddb9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 38c | 671.47$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | -13.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 66c | 659.06$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Under | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 32c | 290$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 506 | 46.8%237 W · 269 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…938bbacked Over | 68c | 290$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 251.08$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71bc…7fe4backed Over | 44c | 226.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.64 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 46c | 197.6$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.53 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 42c | 179.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.34 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 37c | 131.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…ca37backed Over | 73c | 123.4$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 34c | 111.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 347 | 53.9%187 W · 160 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 93.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 42c | 86.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 58c | 69.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 209 | 47.4%99 W · 110 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 27c | 68.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 54c | 48.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 62c | 47.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 48c | 33.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 411 | 47%193 W · 218 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 38c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 192 | 45.8%88 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Under | 38c | 26.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb5…d972backed Over | 73c | 26.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda46…5470backed Over | 76c | 23.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 615 | 47%289 W · 326 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…f3ebbacked Over | 72c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5this page
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 158.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.