WNBA · resolved market
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x465f339efcd9ec9840a705c51165cfeaf4cb8c73b362966a936d458529675b35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 52c | 141,208$73,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67,779.94 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -8.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…e2cebacked Under | 48c | 139,504$66,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66,961.74 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…0eb4backed Under | 52c | 9,417$4,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.54 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed Over | 48c | 1,676$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc638…e298backed Over | 48c | 1,666$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.52 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Over | 48c | 890$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Over | 53c | 849.06$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.06 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 741.77$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.14 | 462 | 47%217 W · 245 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 447.94$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.93 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…d56abacked Over | 53c | 355.74$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 47c | 355.74$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Over | 71c | 283.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 48c | 234.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.16 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…464dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 52c | 205$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 195$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.19 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde6…764bbacked Over | 55c | 182.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 32c | 172.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Over | 47c | 166.89$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 48c | 163$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 48c | 150.94$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 48c | 82.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 47c | 77.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Over | 48c | 72.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 52c | 71.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b1…8e43backed Under | 50c | 70.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…ca29backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 20c | 62.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Over | 50c | 62.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 449 | 15.6%70 W · 379 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fc…b574backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed3…135fbacked Under | 49c | 40.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5aa…e292backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8f…aef9backed Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 159.5this page
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State ValkyriesGolden State Valkyries won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 158.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 160.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 162.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5Over won
- PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 165.5Over won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-10.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-8.5)Golden State Valkyries won
- Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5)Golden State Valkyries won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.