Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f6f4fad6f9139870f543832a45fad7dfe2f43c2fec073acec918c0e473b32a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Missouri State Bearsof Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, Missouri State Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $433,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $434,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $433,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 427,719$239,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188,294.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 315,593$138,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138,860.99 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 100,000$44,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,000 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 5,578$2,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,503.57 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 212 | 48.1%102 W · 110 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 536$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.37 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9219…d304backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 513.56$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 509$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.96 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 352.48$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +15.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadec…88fdbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…e68bbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 46c | 214$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 25c | 213.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59f8…853cbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 46c | 180.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…6f40backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 46c | 58.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -5.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a0…d84fbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 58.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 51.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 891 | 46.2%412 W · 479 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33c…6006backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 44c | 47.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Missouri State Bears | 55c | 44.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b06…10a7backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…5ffbbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08f0…6cabbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 36.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 54c | 34.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 47c | 25.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 45c | 24.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Missouri State Bears | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-6.5)this page
- Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders won
- Missouri State Bears vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders: O/U 137.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.