Ligue 1 · resolved market
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f72651369d0559bd0b768b6963df5e8ca08ec2f18eb63e757522b414a752034
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 19c | 77,094$14,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,899.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 8,252$6,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.69 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 80c | 4,000$3,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 80c | 1,972$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.06 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 17c | 1,451$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.18 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 18c | 585.92$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.47 | 350 | 37.7%132 W · 218 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 299 | 49.8%149 W · 150 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598b…f296backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 18c | 329.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 18c | 278.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c34…dfafbacked Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 17c | 240$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 17c | 234.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Over | 19c | 180.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 66c | 176$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 78c | 161.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 18c | 145$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 19c | 141.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 64c | 98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 263 | 46.4%122 W · 141 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 36c | 79.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 28c | 64.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Over | 18c | 57.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…12ffbacked Under | 78c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5this page
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5Over won
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 2.5Under won
- Stade Brestois 29 vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.