MLB · resolved market
Reds vs. Royals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f97ed5cfa73d12f419d0e1b14eadd34873040307013af90bc390e7d35dd5658
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Reds, Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Royals | 53c | 20,398$10,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,810.82 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Reds | 47c | 9,954$4,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,275.52 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20e2…667fbacked Reds | 47c | 8,440$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,473.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Royals | 54c | 6,370$3,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,434.61 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…40acbacked Royals | 54c | 4,000$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,155.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked Reds | 46c | 3,952$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,134.35 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Reds | 46c | 3,261$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.94 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Reds | 47c | 3,223$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.32 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Reds | 47c | 2,726$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,451.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Reds | 47c | 2,267$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,201.51 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Reds | 46c | 1,567$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.92 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Reds | 45c | 1,131$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.99 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Reds | 47c | 1,093$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.29 | 264 | 53.8%142 W · 122 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Reds | 46c | 999.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.56 | 333 | 49.5%165 W · 168 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Royals | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 46c | 882.93$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.78 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Royals | 55c | 800.04$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.35 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Reds | 46c | 798.99$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.45 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals | 52c | 709.33$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.85 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Royals | 54c | 502.63$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.42 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Reds | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Royals | 54c | 463$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.02 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Reds | 67c | 460$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.07 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ee…084abacked Reds | 48c | 418.29$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Reds | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 338 | 52.1%176 W · 162 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…6951backed Royals | 53c | 390.57$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…8b05backed Reds | 48c | 362.15$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.32 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5126…cf14backed Royals | 53c | 357.83$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…1a6ebacked Reds | 48c | 348.46$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafdf…9127backed Reds | 48c | 326.58$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c8…074cbacked Reds | 48c | 324.23$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…6f02backed Royals | 53c | 320.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…3526backed Reds | 48c | 314.54$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…1a05backed Royals | 53c | 304.91$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Reds | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Royals | 25c | 299.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 258 | 35.3%91 W · 167 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe30…2950backed Royals | 53c | 297.25$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf342…f9cdbacked Royals | 53c | 284.19$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Royals | 54c | 223.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…46e6backed Reds | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd386…1887backed Reds | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 192 | 33.3%64 W · 128 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Royals | 53c | 203.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Royals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…01dabacked Reds | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Reds | 46c | 129$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.66 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Reds | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 177 | 32.8%58 W · 119 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Reds | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Reds | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Reds | 49c | 89.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked Reds | 64c | 78.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Royals | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b80…d267backed Royals | 53c | 73.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Royals | 51c | 72.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Reds | 79c | 72.13$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Royals | 62c | 71.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0229…ea6cbacked Royals | 48c | 67.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 417 | 47.2%197 W · 220 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Royals | 26c | 56.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 525 | 42.5%223 W · 302 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Reds | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 179 | 54.7%98 W · 81 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Reds | 48c | 49.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 159 | 49.1%78 W · 81 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Royals | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Reds | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 248 | 8.9%22 W · 226 L | -17.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Reds | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Royals | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…be88backed Royals | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 255 | 11.8%30 W · 225 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…3986backed Royals | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d9…ed60backed Reds | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f38…ac6dbacked Royals | 53c | 32.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Royals | 61c | 31.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcde…499fbacked Royals | 53c | 30.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Reds | 45c | 30.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | +10.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…39a1backed Reds | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Royals | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Reds | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.