NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff733ba144e90f4e71d8459a9eeca945470b3a9aca3319699d56adb6ed4cbc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Cavaliers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e3d…55b3backed Cavaliers | 50c | 2,511$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.5 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Bulls | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Bulls | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Cavaliers | 49c | 554.9$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.9 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Bulls | 51c | 398.9$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.46 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 49c | 389.1$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42c1…e644backed Bulls | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Bulls | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 361 | 43.5%157 W · 204 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bulls | 50c | 169.72$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.86 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5c…ed5bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bulls | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bulls | 47c | 86.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b66…304cbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 86.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Cavaliers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…c02cbacked Bulls | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. CavaliersBulls won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.