NBA · resolved market
Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95e9e73894dd2d20c0faf2f276b463d3e4008672ff199d93786b9e0a40f97a4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 51c | 5,745$2,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,931.55 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 5,685$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 58c | 3,470$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 42c | 1,734$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.67 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 1,283$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.22 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 57c | 1,204$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.75 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Over | 43c | 1,009$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -10.6wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 49c | 913$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.37 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Under | 58c | 900.05$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 526$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.08 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Over | 38c | 385$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.7 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 43c | 300$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 44c | 249.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 43c | 212.47$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.17 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 51c | 201$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Under | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…9811backed Under | 56c | 188.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Under | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 61c | 150.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.31 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 145$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Over | 45c | 133.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 36c | 129.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 129$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 38c | 125$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 61c | 105$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 55c | 104$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 44c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…fa33backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 48c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 62c | 81.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 47c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 42c | 57.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…0938backed Under | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 61c | 49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Over | 48c | 44.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 38c | 32.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa81b…dd67backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x143d…5bc4backed Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5f…99d3backed Over | 45c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 51c | 21.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530d…9b59backed Under | 57c | 19.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Under | 57c | 17.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. CavaliersBulls won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Bulls won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.