NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x057e69807903da7577b73fcf5751c9368d79aa048eed9b24b5ab649cf4edb7f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Cavaliers, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,273
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 43c | 3,824$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.42 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 3,463$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.6 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bulls | 57c | 2,403$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.13 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Cavaliers | 5c | 2,400$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Bulls | 56c | 1,300$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 51c | 1,284$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.16 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bulls | 57c | 594.63$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.69 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 327.27$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Cavaliers | 46c | 251.41$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bulls | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de5…e8f5backed Bulls | 68c | 147.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Bulls | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5132…61a7backed Bulls | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Bulls | 57c | 104.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Bulls | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Cavaliers | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Bulls | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Bulls | 56c | 91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…c63bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Bulls | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…e8fbbacked Bulls | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 32c | 87.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Bulls | 55c | 76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Bulls | 66c | 75.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Cavaliers | 42c | 72.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Bulls | 65c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Cavaliers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 539 | 51.6%278 W · 261 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cdb…7a7abacked Bulls | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b95…b23ebacked Cavaliers | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…debdbacked Bulls | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x971c…f72cbacked Bulls | 56c | 31.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 152 | 53.3%81 W · 71 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Cavaliers | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 217 | 43.8%95 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Cavaliers | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Cavaliers | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6541…9767backed Bulls | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed Cavaliers | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Bulls won
- Bulls vs. CavaliersBulls won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineBulls won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Cavaliers: O/U 242.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Bulls won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.