Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fff05f6610fcc512ed6ffabeb111c51db70fc4d9f59f39ad50e9bd95f88991a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 335.21$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 284.87$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.89 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 66c | 227.15$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 58c | 206.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 26c | 193.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 182.14$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 80c | 174.94$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 67c | 169.87$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 154.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.69 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 151.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…16f9backed No | 70c | 148.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 147.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 70c | 144.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 117.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 108.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 43c | 105.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 41c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 43c | 91.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 90.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 59c | 80.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 20c | 78.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 70.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 58.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 29c | 55.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 50c | 52.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 46.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 42c | 44.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 64c | 43.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 30c | 42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 40.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 36.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 33.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 33.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 38c | 32.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 44c | 32.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…dc40backed Yes | 76c | 28.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 25.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2678…e6a9backed No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 43c | 24.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 55c | 21.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…9082backed Yes | 77c | 20.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 64c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 60c | 20.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…a857backed Yes | 60c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 69c | 17.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.