UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7002e670a869a43bc4a3374b9b860d5d363c0d26fb5a01c284fe9cdecd73a5da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,828 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 33c | 1,544$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 68c | 1,045$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.85 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ad…790cbacked Under | 67c | 853$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x520e…d75abacked Over | 30c | 717.94$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.1 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 37c | 402.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…4392backed Under | 69c | 362.32$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 63c | 338.05$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.8 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9175…bd29backed Over | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc14f…7d8dbacked Over | 31c | 191.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed Under | 70c | 183$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…909dbacked Under | 67c | 79.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da5…be77backed Under | 68c | 58.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 34c | 46.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +6.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…95f9backed Over | 34c | 42.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -10.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc474…d697backed Over | 31c | 42.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…2c71backed Under | 67c | 34.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 66c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…94d0backed Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Under | 73c | 16.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Iwo Baraniewski won
- Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.