UFC · resolved market
Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4e58cf776a8b6d4bb900b266af3c9cd246ff6b6454e2e8cda7f41a11852546e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,624 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26cf…c612backed No | 27c | 2,224$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.6 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1c…f13cbacked Yes | 72c | 1,165$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.28 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yes | 77c | 720.81$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.81 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 24c | 352.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.79 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…fc2bbacked Yes | 76c | 348.42$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Yes | 71c | 211.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…54e2backed Yes | 72c | 98.62$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…bb24backed Yes | 72c | 62.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f5…50d6backed Yes | 72c | 43.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…022dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 67c | 27.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe358…6878backed Yes | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88d…2750backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 70c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b65…9fd0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ae…2103backed Yes | 71c | 19.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Yes | 71c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iwo Baraniewski win by KO or TKO?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Austen Lane vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Iwo Baraniewski won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.